2023-2024 Premier League predictions: champions, relegation and golden boot

After three successive Premier League titles, and five out of the last six, Manchester City once again go into a new campaign as the team to beat. 

Pep Guardiola’s treble winners are aiming to become the “first club in English top-division history to win the title four seasons in a row”, said Paul Harrison on Sky Sports. With Erling Haaland leading the attack, the “odds-on favourites” have “few flaws”.

Following promotion from the EFL Championship, Burnley, Sheffield United and Luton Town join the upper echelons of English football. Have they “added enough to their squads” to avoid a relegation battle, or even “challenge higher up the table”?

Ahead of the opening weekend of the 2023-2024 Premier League season, we look at the pundit predictions and betting odds for the title, relegation candidates and golden boot winner.

Man City celebrate last season’s Premier League title win

Catherine Ivill/Getty Images

Who will be crowned champions? 

It will be “very hard for any club” to stop Man City after last season’s “superb Premier League-FA Cup-Champions League treble”, said Ian Darke on And despite the “potentially damaging losses” of Ilkay Gundogan and Riyad Mahrez, City’s squad “still oozes quality”. Mateo Kovacic will “fit in nicely” while the “already impressive” defence is now “bolstered” by new arrival Josko Gvardiol.

In a poll of 27 BBC Sport TV and radio pundits, 26 have predicted that City will lift the trophy, with only Ellen White tipping Arsenal. Guardiola’s team have now been the BBC pundits’ pre-season favourites in “seven of the eight seasons” since the Spaniard took charge in 2016, but they have “never been backed to this extent before”.

There is “plenty of intrigue” surrounding Arsenal and whether they will be able to “push the champions again”, said The Independent, especially after their “lucrative spending” and the addition of Declan Rice from West Ham. Nine of the paper’s writers back City to defend their title, while Michael Jones picks the Gunners. Arteta’s side have “proven they can challenge so I’ll go with them”, he said. Arsenal have “strengthened” and the “next step in their development” will be to win a “big trophy”. Why not the Premier League?

“No, everyone hasn’t said Man City,” said Mark Jones in The Mirror’s predictions. “Obviously”, City feature “quite heavily” when it comes to predicting the champions, with 11 Mirror writers backing them. But six have tipped Arsenal and four have gone for Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool.

Title winner betting odds

  • Manchester City: 5/6
  • Arsenal: 5/1
  • Liverpool: 8/1 
  • Manchester United: 12/1 
  • Chelsea: 20/1 
  • Newcastle United: 25/1  
  • Prices according to Oddschecker (as of 11 August)

Arsenal’s Declan Rice in action against Man City in the Community Shield

Stuart MacFarlane/Arsenal FC/Getty Images

Who will finish in the top four? 

And what about the top four, asked Football365. It’s a prediction which “nobody ever gets right”. As we all know by now “this question is f***ing impossible”, said Dave Tickner, who predicts City will win the title ahead of Arsenal and Manchester United. Then it’s “any one of four or five teams” for that fourth spot. 

Top four finish betting odds

  • Manchester City: 1/16
  • Arsenal: 4/9
  • Liverpool: 4/7
  • Manchester United: 4/5
  • Chelsea: 7/4
  • Newcastle United: 15/8
  • Tottenham Hotspur: 5/1 
  • Brighton & Hove Albion: 15/2
  • Aston Villa: 8/1  
  • Prices according to Oddschecker (as of 11 August)

Can Luton Town and Sheffield United avoid the drop?

Cameron Smith/Getty Images

Relegation battle: who will go down?  

Luton and Sheffield United are “surely doomed before a ball is kicked”, said Sarah Winterburn on Football365. The third is “far more difficult”, but “I will opt for Wolves”. Agreeing, Ian Watson said he “can’t make a case” for Sheffield United staying up and Luton “will be the new Blackpool”, spending the season being “patronised all the way back to the Championship”. Wolves will follow them.

Relegation will be a “close call”, but Everton’s “lack of goals will tell”, said Jones in The Mirror, who sees the Toffees being “sucked into it” along with Luton and Sheffield United. You can “take your pick” from “eight or nine teams” to join newly-promoted Luton and Sheffield United in the bottom three, said Liam Prenderville in same paper. Wolves, Everton, Palace, Burnley and Bournemouth “will all be down there”, but “I think Forest will make the drop”. 

Relegation betting odds

  • Luton Town: 2/5
  • Sheffield United: 4/6 
  • Nottingham Forest: 5/2
  • Wolves: 11/4
  • AFC Bournemouth: 3/1 
  • Everton: 3/1 
  • Fulham: 4/1 
  • Burnley: 9/2 
  • Crystal Palace: 8/1 
  • Prices according to Oddschecker (as of 11 August)

Erling Haaland scored 52 goals in his first season at Man City

Michael Regan/The FA/Getty Images

Golden boot: who will top the scoring charts? 

Norway striker Erling Haaland scored a “record 36 goals in 35 league games” to win the golden boot last season, said Emlyn Begley on BBC Sport, and netted 52 goals, a record for a Manchester City player, in 53 games in all competitions. 

If he “stays fit for the majority of the campaign”, said Greg Lea on talkSPORT, it is “hard to see” the 23-year-old finishing “anywhere other than top of the scoring charts”. Harry Kane would usually be the “likeliest challenger”, but the main doubt is “whether he will even be competing in England’s top flight this season”. Bayern Munich have had a bid accepted for Tottenham’s “talisman” and it’s likely that the England skipper will be moving to Germany. 

Top scorer betting odds 

  • Erling Haaland (Manchester City): 4/6 
  • Mohamed Salah (Liverpool): 9/1 
  • Darwin Nunez (Liverpool): 18/1 
  • Marcus Rashford (Manchester United): 22/1  
  • Son-Heung Min (Tottenham): 33/1  
  • Rasmus Højlund (Manchester United): 33/1 
  • Alexander Isak (Newcastle United): 35/1  
  • Prices according to Oddschecker (as of 11 August)



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